The year 2023 closed on a positive note for the major asset classes in the financial markets. After a period of recession, often followed by phases of prolonged growth, we saw a market recovery. While the beginning of the year was rated as mediocre, the end of the year brought strong growth in all segments except commodities. This positive trend was supported by the stabilisation of interest rates and growing investor optimism, which, together with the moderation in inflation since October, kick-started market growth.

Looking ahead, analyst firm MorningStar expects US inflation to remain below 2%, but there is no certainty that this target will be achieved. US GDP growth is also expected to reach 1.7%, down from 2.5% last year, but still not a recession. Globally, however, GDP growth is expected to stagnate in the coming years, with stronger growth expected mainly in emerging markets such as India, with growth expected to reach 6%.

Although the world economy has been overheating since late 2021 and inflation has started to rise, 2023 has brought some calming. Inflation began to fall and GDP gradually grew, suggesting a "soft landing" - positive GDP growth with inflation below 2%. However, despite this positive news, risks remain in the market.

What does it look like for the Czech Republic?
The situation in the Czech Republic is specific. In January, year-on-year inflation reached 2.5% and prices in general rose by 30%, but wages did not grow at the same pace. This mismatch poses real problems for GDP growth and the health of the economy. In response to these challenges, diversifying the investment portfolio away from the Czech koruna and the local market seems a sensible step.

At a time when the Czech economy is not showing healthy economic signs, it is important for investors to consider their strategies and adjust their portfolios to reflect current and expected market conditions. Diversification and careful monitoring of global and local economic trends remain key to success in an uncertain financial environment.